Abu Mus'ab al-Zarqawi sighted near Kirkuk!
From the StrategyPage
IRAQ: No Place to Hide
November 23, 2004: Al Qaeda leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi was recently spotted near Kirkuk, 260 kilometers northeast of Baghdad. Al Zarqawi had to go somewhere, and with a $25 million price on his head, many Iraqis are more than happy to let the police know where the Jordanian terrorist is. Al Qaeda is very unpopular in Iraq, mainly because most of the victims of al Qaeda attacks have been Iraqi civilians. Coalition troops offer smaller rewards for lesser information, like al Zarqawi being seen traveling in an ambulance south of Kirkuk, and possibly wounded. Money is a powerful weapon in Iraq, and has been used lavishly by the deposed Baath party officials who are directing the anti-government forces. Al Zarqawi is thought to be receiving some of that money. While al Qaeda and the Baath party rely on lots of volunteers, you still need cash to run a war. Some things, and some people, have to be paid for. For the last 18 months, coalition intelligence forces, and Special Forces units, have been developing informer networks. Tips from informants inside Fallujah were responsible for the rapid progress of the coalition attack, and the failure of many of the defenders ambushes and boob-traps. Now the coalition money is being spent all over central Iraq. With nearly 2,500 anti-government gunmen dead or captured in Fallujah, those who fled are shorthanded, out in the open, and a source of quick money for sharp eyed Iraqis. November 22, 2004: Sunni Arab gunmen continue to fight for control of towns and neighborhoods throughout central Iraq. While some gunmen remain in Fallujah, the majority of those who are active are in Baghdad and Mosul. Both of these cities have large Sunni Arab populations. But Mosul has a large Kurdish population, and Baghdad a large number of Shiites. These non-Sunni populations provide endless numbers of recruits for the army and police. Too many Shia Arab and Kurdish families want revenge on the Sunni Arabs for murder, torture and abuse in the past. While the Sunni Arab thugs have the edge in experience, and reputation, their violence is not overwhelming. The army and police are fighting back, killing and arresting thousands of Sunni Arab gunmen. The Sunni Arabs don't like to dwell on the fact that they are only a fifth of the population, or that they get slaughtered whenever they get into a fight with American troops. Trying to disrupt the January elections is now a major goal for the Sunni Arab extremists. They can do some of that in Sunni Arab areas. But in the next ten weeks, the number of Sunni gunmen available for this may be too low to make much of an impression. The Sunni Arabs are fighting a losing battle. Trying to bring back the good old days of Sunni domination will only work if the Shia Arab and Kurd majority is too weak to resist. No wonder the Sunni Arabs hate foreigners so much.
November 21, 2004: National elections will be held on January 30th. Many Sunni Arab groups are against holding elections, as this will formalize the fact that the Sunni Arabs are only about twenty percent of the population
IRAQ: No Place to Hide
November 23, 2004: Al Qaeda leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi was recently spotted near Kirkuk, 260 kilometers northeast of Baghdad. Al Zarqawi had to go somewhere, and with a $25 million price on his head, many Iraqis are more than happy to let the police know where the Jordanian terrorist is. Al Qaeda is very unpopular in Iraq, mainly because most of the victims of al Qaeda attacks have been Iraqi civilians. Coalition troops offer smaller rewards for lesser information, like al Zarqawi being seen traveling in an ambulance south of Kirkuk, and possibly wounded. Money is a powerful weapon in Iraq, and has been used lavishly by the deposed Baath party officials who are directing the anti-government forces. Al Zarqawi is thought to be receiving some of that money. While al Qaeda and the Baath party rely on lots of volunteers, you still need cash to run a war. Some things, and some people, have to be paid for. For the last 18 months, coalition intelligence forces, and Special Forces units, have been developing informer networks. Tips from informants inside Fallujah were responsible for the rapid progress of the coalition attack, and the failure of many of the defenders ambushes and boob-traps. Now the coalition money is being spent all over central Iraq. With nearly 2,500 anti-government gunmen dead or captured in Fallujah, those who fled are shorthanded, out in the open, and a source of quick money for sharp eyed Iraqis. November 22, 2004: Sunni Arab gunmen continue to fight for control of towns and neighborhoods throughout central Iraq. While some gunmen remain in Fallujah, the majority of those who are active are in Baghdad and Mosul. Both of these cities have large Sunni Arab populations. But Mosul has a large Kurdish population, and Baghdad a large number of Shiites. These non-Sunni populations provide endless numbers of recruits for the army and police. Too many Shia Arab and Kurdish families want revenge on the Sunni Arabs for murder, torture and abuse in the past. While the Sunni Arab thugs have the edge in experience, and reputation, their violence is not overwhelming. The army and police are fighting back, killing and arresting thousands of Sunni Arab gunmen. The Sunni Arabs don't like to dwell on the fact that they are only a fifth of the population, or that they get slaughtered whenever they get into a fight with American troops. Trying to disrupt the January elections is now a major goal for the Sunni Arab extremists. They can do some of that in Sunni Arab areas. But in the next ten weeks, the number of Sunni gunmen available for this may be too low to make much of an impression. The Sunni Arabs are fighting a losing battle. Trying to bring back the good old days of Sunni domination will only work if the Shia Arab and Kurd majority is too weak to resist. No wonder the Sunni Arabs hate foreigners so much.
November 21, 2004: National elections will be held on January 30th. Many Sunni Arab groups are against holding elections, as this will formalize the fact that the Sunni Arabs are only about twenty percent of the population
posted by allanon at 7:30 PM
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